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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Fill up the tank
Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. There's less than a 30% chance that more than a trickle of ships will get through this month.
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To unblock Hormuz, Trump is hitting targets on Kharg Island, home of Iran's oil export infrastructure. Trump warned NATO that the alliance faces a 'very bad future' if it doesn't help in the war.
Revenge of the Illinois machine
The closely watched Illinois primaries are tomorrow. Pritzker machine-backed Juliana Stratton holds a narrow lead over crypto donor-fuelled Krishnamoorthi, who started the cycle with a massive lead. It's also not looking good for insurgent Dems hoping to pick off establishment picks in the four open House races.
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering?
Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Bank of Brazil Decision in March?
IL-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Will Khamenei tweet on...?
Netanyahu out by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
The Masters - Winner
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
NBA Western Conference Champion
"No" Netanyahu out by March 31?
BrazilianMemer
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