December 15th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  More Cuts in January? "Economancy" is a highly profitable Polymarket trader specializing in Fed rate decisions. The account has accumulated a $72k position on "Yes" for a 25 bps rate cut at the January Fed meeting while the market is heavily favoriting "No cut." $351,461 if he's right. Here's his profile. |
Trump Cartel Strikes Odds for Trump to carry out anti-cartel operations on foreign soil by end-of-year have plunged more than 40 points from a high of 71% in October. |
Dutch Coalition Over Before it Begins? The October Dutch election produced a highly fragmented parliament, with centrist‑liberal D66 winning a plurality but short of a majority. After weeks of stalemate, a three‑party basis coalition of D66, CDA, and VVD has emerged as the favorite but odds for them to form the have plunged more than 20% in recent days as internal tensions in the coalition have emerged. |
| Will Dr 'Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election? View market → | 0%-43% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? View market → | 20%+14% |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 9 - December 16, 2025? | 1d |
| What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? | 15d |
| What day will the Lighter airdrop be? | 15d |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $8.87M |
| Fed decision in January? | $4.02M |
| Highest grossing movie in 2025? | $1.86M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | $1.78M |
That's all for today.
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