December 14th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  Epstein Deadline Looms The Trump Administration has five days left to release the Epstein files, as required by the Epstein Files Transparancy Act, which passed in the House 427-1. We interviewed Ro Khanna, the law's co-author, on what happens next if the DOJ keeps stalling. |
Lululemon's Next CEO? Yoga pants maker Lululemon's stock pumped 10% on news that its CEO would be replaced. The stock has been cut in half this year. There is no clear favorite yet in the odds, although the company's founder recently took out a full-page ad in the WSJ calling for a more "product-driven" leader. |
Santaflation Each year the NORAD Santa Tracker publishes the total number of gifts delivered on Christmas. The market is currently expecting 8.2-8.3b gifts. If accurate, this would put the gift inflation rate at well below 2%. |
| Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? View market → | 37%-23% |
| Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? View market → | 21%+10% |
| "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office | 8d |
| Bank of Japan decision in December? | 4d |
| What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? | 16d |
| What will SpaceX's public ticker be? | 14h ago |
| Will Dan Crenshaw sue Shawn Ryan by Jan 31? | 15h ago |
| Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl? | 13h ago |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $3.48M |
| Fed decision in January? | $4.91M |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 9 - December 16, 2025? | $2.88M |
| Highest grossing movie in 2025? | $1.08M |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $1.45M |
| UEFA Champions League Winner | 167d |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 56d |
Whale Moves | $160,619 position on "No" iX Jinping out in 2025? | $160.6K |
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That's all for today.
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