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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:
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As Operation Epic Fury enters its third day, the polymarket on Iran's next Supreme Leader remains volatile. Trump has called on Iranians to overthrow the regime, but also told a reporter that the candidates he was considering, presumably Islamic Republic insiders, had been killed in the initial strikes.
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A Widening Regional War
Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on Israel, all six Gulf Arab states, Jordan, Iraq, nearby maritime targets, and U.S. assets in the region. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has begun firing missiles into Israel opening the northern front in support of Tehran.
Boots on the Ground?
While still not a base case, odds for this to turn into a U.S. ground invasion have doubled since the start of the conflict.
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
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Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Who will enter Iran by June 30?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
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Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
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"No" Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
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