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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
JD, take the wheel
Iran and the U.S. are negotiating in public over a possible ceasefire, with Iran requesting to deal directly with Vance, a known skeptic of Middle East wars. Odds for a ceasefire in the April-May timeframe are increasing.
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The Information reports SpaceX has moved forward its IPO plans and is expected to file its prospectus in the next two weeks. Polymarket traders put a 49% chance of SpaceX's IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion.
Last dance?
MLB returns from hibernation with tonight's Yankees-Giants opener. But the big concern hanging over the season is a labor battle when the agreement between owners and players expires on Dec. 1. Traders currently price the chance of a renewal by then at just 48%.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering?
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?
Bank of Mexico Decision in March?
Number of TSA Passengers March 27?
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
Will Vance visit the Middle East by..?
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Eurovision Winner 2026
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
F1 Drivers' Champion
2026 NBA Champion
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