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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Peace through TACO?
With oil over $91 and ships blazing in the Strait, some analysts think it's only a matter of time before "Trump Always Chickens Out." Yet odds for Trump to declare mission accomplished by March 31 have been falling since the start of the conflict. June 30th looks more realistic.
Dead Heat
Alaska is another Republican stronghold that Democrats are hoping to crack in the midterms. The Senate race is a dead heat today, but Democrat Mary Peltola clearly has the momentum. She started November as a 16% underdog.
Revenge of the Ravens
After firing John Harbaugh and backing out on Maxx Crosby, the Baltimore Ravens' Super Bowl window still isn't closed. They signed Trey Hendrickson instead, helping make them a 16% favorite to win the AFC in 2027.
Anduril IPO before 2027?
Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 13)
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31?
Fed decision in March?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
English Premier League Winner
UEFA Champions League Winner
Bucks vs. Heat
"No" Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
FedWillWin
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