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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. ⚽️ World Cup on Polymarket US. $500 → $2,324.52 if South Africa upsets Czechia today π $50 with first deposit (code POLYG50)."
No Fable for you
Odds for a quick return of Anthropic's powerful Fable model are falling. But that's ok because the next Mythos-class model is still on track for this Summer.
Quick Links
Arms race (minus the arms)
The Golden Boot race is heating up. After Tuesday’s scoring barrage from favorites Messi, Haaland and MbappΓ©, Harry Kane is on the board too — and today's slate could bring even more names into the chase.
Matches Today
Peace through drones
Ukrainian drones are now regularly hitting targets deep inside Russia, like this strike yesterday on an oil depot in Moscow. Yet odds of a ceasefire deal are ticking up slightly.
Netanyahu watch
Israel's election is in late October, but this anon wallet is already up over 154% as Netanyahu's reelection odds have dropped.
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Colombia Presidential Election
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Megaquake by July 31?
US-Iran deal text released by...?
Fed Decision in July?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
World Cup Winner
$73.80M
PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner
$1.33M
Which continent will win the World Cup?
$1.08M
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