December 16th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  Depreciation Big Short star Michael Burry has shot to the top of the Substack charts with a bearish call on NVIDIA. And now famed short seller Jim Chanos is warning of "massive financial risk" from how NVIDIA's customers like CoreWeave handle depreciation for GPUs. Yet NVIDIA is still leading the odds to be the world's largest company through end-2026. |
Noah is making moves Last week, we noted that "Liam" was the most vulnerable frontrunner name on the top baby names of 2025 list. With less than two weeks left in the year, "Noah" is making a last-minute run. Odds for Noah to be top boy name this year have shot up 21% in the last 24 hours following a data update from the Social Security Administration. |
Tiktok Odds for Larry Ellison / Oracle to close the Tiktok deal by end 2026 increased 8% overnight. This follows a U.S. Supreme Court's unanimous decision upholding the 2023 law banning TikTok's ownership by China. |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31? View market → | 72%+34% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? View market → | 14%-7% |
| ECB Interest Rates: December 2025 | 1d |
| Bank of Japan decision in December? | 2d |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by...? | 14d |
| West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner | 12h ago |
| What will Trump say during Hanukkah Reception on December 16? | 8h ago |
| Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner | 13h ago |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $9.79M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $8.47M |
| UEFA Champions League Winner | $1.51M |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner | $1.23M |
| Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs | 12h |
Whale Moves | $98,300 position on "No" Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | $98.3K |
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| $94,881 position on "No" Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | $94.9K |
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That's all for today.
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