| | Good morning. To keep the 'inside' foul count down, Polymarket has signed up Palantir to wear the referee stripes. The prediction market announced Tuesday that a platform developed by Peter Thiel's software giant and TWG AI will monitor and report suspicious sports bets. The news comes as Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi, have seen an explosion in sports-related contracts. Last week, 40% of wagers on Polymarket and nearly 70% on Kalshi involved sports, according to data platform Dune. The two have also been subject to greater scrutiny over insider trading at a time when pro sports is facing its own reckoning. Last year, the Justice Department charged Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association players in separate cases with colluding with gamblers to rig certain game outcomes. Palantir's AI and facial recognition technologies are frequently used by law enforcement and spy agencies; now, its tools will help figure out whether the account that bet it all on the Browns has an insider tip or is merely a deranged Clevelander. | | | | | | | | One of the Newtonian laws of Big Oil physics is getting flipped on its head. Historically speaking, when oil prices rise, shares of oil majors tend to rise with them. But as oil prices spike amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, shares of major oil firms have barely budged. Consider it a sign of the sheer disruptive scale of the Middle East war, and the unprecedented coordinated response it has sparked from the world's energy leaders. Conscious Uncoupling Oil prices nosedived on Tuesday, following an explosive rise that pushed prices well above $100 per barrel earlier this week. US crude prices were down roughly 8% for the day through late Tuesday afternoon, falling to about $86 per barrel, while the global Brent crude benchmark fell a similar amount to about $91 per barrel. But prices remain up significantly, about 26%, since the start of the conflict. The usual correlated rise in oil major shares, however, remains to be seen. Shares of Chevron, for instance, have dipped slightly since the start of the war, and Exxon's are down nearly 3%. While the unusual decoupling is largely due to fears of how the conflict could rock the oil industry's operations in the Middle East, a couple of underlying factors are also at play: - Unsurprisingly, each of the big five oil majors has a significant share of production in the region; according to TD Cowen estimates seen by Barron's, a full 27% of TotalEnergies' supply chain is exposed to the region, followed by 18% for BP, 16% for Exxon, 13% for Shell and 4% for Chevron.
- Some traders see a possible parallel to the 2008 spike and subsequent crash in oil prices if the war drags on and threatens supplies. "Oil stocks followed crude's rally [in 2008] until about $100, then almost completely disconnected as it went to $147," David Hewitt, senior consultant at Hewitt Energy Perspectives, told Reuters. "The market was right then — $147 per barrel rapidly became $30."
In the meantime, leaders from the more than 30 member nations of the International Energy Agency convened Tuesday to consider tapping the roughly 1.2 billion barrels of oil they collectively hold in reserve, a move that could further stabilize oil prices. Officials proposed the largest reserve release in the organization's history, topping even the 182 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and members may decide as soon as today, The Wall Street Journal reported.   Identity Crisis: As the conflict goes on, more than one oil major is undergoing a makeover. Shell on Monday announced it would sell its Jiffy Lube subsidiary to Monomoy Capital Partners for $1.3 billion. And in an SEC filing Tuesday, Exxon revealed it plans to ask shareholders to vote on moving its corporate charter from New Jersey to Texas, a maneuver that could provide it with cover from activist investors. What is it about chaos that always seems to prompt big moves? Written by Brian Boyle | | | | | | | | | Photo via Rad Intel | As AI markets mature, companies aren't just competing — they're combining. In 2021, RAD acquired Atomic Reach, its core AI engine. Since then, RAD Intel's valuation has scaled from $10M to $220M+, a 22x increase driven by that intelligence layer and reinforced by recurring seven-figure Fortune 1000 contracts delivering 3–4x ROI. Now structured as a holding company through its Artificial Intelligence Buyout strategy, RAD deploys that same AI foundation across independent operating businesses — turning one AI asset into a compounding value platform. Backed by Fidelity funds and venture investors, selected by the Adobe Design Fund, supported by early operators from Google, Meta and Amazon. 15,000+ investors aligned. Nasdaq ticker reserved: $RADI. $0.85 pricing available through tomorrow, March 12.*  | | | | | Everyday investors who want a slice of Bill Ackman's playbook may soon have their chance. The hedge fund manager is planning to list his firm, Pershing Square, on the New York Stock Exchange, according to a Tuesday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO would give investors a stake in both Pershing Square's common shares and PSUS, its closed-end fund. Ackman wants to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion in the combined transaction for PSUS, and investors will be able to snag shares for $50 each. According to the filing, the firm expects to deliver 20 shares of the common stock for every 100 shares of PSUS bought in the IPO at no additional cost. There will be a 2% management fee and no performance fee. Main Street Man This isn't the first attempt by Ackman to bring a closed-end fund to a wider pool; he made his name as an activist investor but has since transformed into a very online, outspoken player on Wall Street and an ally of President Trump. He was planning to do so in 2024 before abandoning the IPO just days before it was supposed to debut. Like legendary investor Warren Buffett, who helmed Berkshire Hathaway for six decades before stepping down at the end of last year (and whom Ackman has referred to as an inspiration), Ackman has garnered a steady following among Main Street investors. The billionaire has 2 million followers on X, where he often posts commentary on finance and politics, and the filing points out that a "substantial media following will assist us in launching new funds and strategies that are responsive to evolving investor demands." Ackman's move comes at a time when many young retail investors have grown tired of the classic stock-and-bond portfolios their parents and grandparents were accustomed to: Celebrity Charm: Ackman wouldn't be the first entrepreneur to parlay popularity into investments. While Elon Musk likely comes to mind, investors also poured money into Cathie Wood's ARK Invest funds, particularly the ARK Innovation ETF, during the pandemic-era tech boom to capitalize on her stock-picking capabilities. Written by Mallika Mitra | | | | | | | | | Photo via Northwestern Mutual | Dreams don't fund themselves, financial plans do. So whether it's your kid's college tuition, retirement or a new business venture, a financial advisor can help make those dreams a reality by helping to grow your wealth and protect what you've worked so hard for. All it takes is one conversation. Learn more about how Northwestern Mutual plans differently. | | | | | | | | Thinking Machines Lab, the artificial intelligence startup led by OpenAI's former chief technology officer Mira Murati, has just traded its 'stealth' status for a seat at the big table. The startup struck a multiyear strategic partnership with Nvidia, which also made a "significant investment," the two announced Tuesday. The terms, however vague, signal ambitions to shake up frontier AI. You Said Watt? Founded as a public benefit corporation in February 2025 by OpenAI veterans, Thinking Machines generated considerable buzz (and jealousy, at least from this wallet) when it raised $2 billion at a $12 billion valuation just five months later. Joining the seed round were A-list investors, including Andreessen Horowitz, Nvidia, AMD and Cisco, for whom most pitch decks serve as recycling material. The hype was on. Thinking Machines emerged from stealth mode in October with its first and so far only product, Tinker, a tool that automates much of the work involved in fine-tuning large language models. Tinker works with Meta's Llama and Alibaba's Qwen, both of which are open source, allowing users to train them to perform certain specialized tasks: making their own custom versions of a frontier model, in short. Beyond that, however, Thinking Machines has kept mum about other plans. Tuesday's deal suggests, at the very least, they aren't small: - The financial details of Nvidia's "significant investment" were not disclosed, but the companies said Thinking Machines will deploy at least 1 gigawatt of the semiconductor giant's brand new Vera Rubin hardware beginning next year.
- One gigawatt is enough to power the entire city of San Francisco, about the amount a nuclear power plant generates. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in August 2025 that building a gigawatt of data-center capacity costs $50 billion to $60 billion. In other words, the resources being deployed here all but scream that Thinking Machines is planning to compete in the frontier model space against the likes of Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Meta and Alibaba.
AI'll See You Later: Thinking Machines hasn't entirely avoided the kind of C-Suite drama its founder's former company endured. (Recall Sam Altman's ousting and nearly immediate reinstatement as OpenAI CEO in 2023.) The executive ranks at Thinking Machines have been in flux, with co-founder Andrew Tulloch leaving for Meta last year, and co-founders Barret Zopf and Luke Metz re-joining OpenAI in January. Written by Sean Craig | | | | | - Lightspeed Listing: Weighing what could be the biggest-ever IPO, SpaceX mulls taking advantage of a proposed "fast entry" rule that would allow rapid inclusion on the blue chip Nasdaq 100 index.
- Make Nice: A judge ordered Live Nation and dozens of states that did not agree to a Justice Department settlement with the Ticketmaster parent to start talks; a trial may start next week if they fail.
- Discover Tomorrow's Trends Today. You don't have time to track every emerging signal, but you can read TheFutureParty for a smart, concise briefing on the business, entertainment and cultural shifts shaping what's next. Sign up for free.**
** Partner | | | | Disclaimer *This is a paid advertisement for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker "RADI" has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai. | | |
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment