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Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Democratic comeback?
With no {official} nominees yet and the midterm elections set to reshape the political landscape this year, traders are catching wind on which party is seizing momentum. Democratic Presidential odds hit all time highs heading into 2028.
Brazil odds flip
Pro-Trump Flávio Bolsonaro officially overtakes China-aligned Lula da Silva as the frontrunner to win the Brazil presidential election. However, the odds are incredibly close, and it looks like anyone's game.
Playing the Play-In
Technically speaking, it's not quite NBA playoff time yet... But the Play-In Tournament to decide who sneaks into the playoffs is upon us, and tonight the Clippers (67%) and Sixers (54%) are favored to beat the Warriors and Magic on night No. 2 of the Play-In.
Are we ever getting Iceman?
Drake has been teasing his anticipated album 'Iceman', but odds of a drop anytime soon hit record lows, according to Polymarket traders.
Not No. 1, still on top
Jannik Sinner reclaimed his No. 1 world ranking by beating Carlos Alcaraz this past weekend to win the Monte-Carlo Masters. But Alcaraz still tops in the market: The Spaniard is favored to win 2 of the 3 remaining Grand Slams, and is co-favored with Sinner at Wimbledon.
Iranian regime fall
This trader is up nearly $50,000 on 'no' trades for when the Iranian regime will fall. Is he right?
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?
S&P 500 all time high by...?
Who will meet with Iran by April 30?
Fed decision in April?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
UEFA Champions League Winner
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